Where the numbers come from
Every number, with its source.
Marks are only as honest as the numbers under them, so the numbers are public. A record marked synthetic is a teaching number: good enough to practise the reasoning, not good enough to score you for real, and labelled so wherever it appears. When a named source replaces it, the record changes, the case is re-checked, and the history stays visible.
Each record carries: what it is, the estimate and its range, who it applies to and where, how it was defined, when it holds, what it already includes, where it came from, who reviewed it and when, and a version. Know a better source? Send it.
| Record | Case | What it is | Estimate | Source | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
strep_prior_low | sore throat | prior, streptococcal cause (low model) | 20% | synthetic:teaching_approximation | synthetic | placeholder until a primary-care prevalence record is admitted |
strep_prior_high | sore throat | prior, streptococcal cause (high model) | 35% | synthetic:teaching_approximation | synthetic | placeholder |
histboth_strep | sore throat | P(fever in 24 h and no cough or coryza | strep) | 48% | synthetic:teaching_approximation | synthetic | conditional independence of items assumed; to be replaced by a joint FeverPAIN record |
histboth_viral | sore throat | P(fever in 24 h and no cough or coryza | viral) | 15.75% | synthetic:teaching_approximation | synthetic | as above |
exam2_strep | sore throat | P(severe inflammation and purulence | strep) | 35.75% | synthetic:teaching_approximation | synthetic | as above |
exam2_viral | sore throat | P(severe inflammation and purulence | viral) | 6% | synthetic:teaching_approximation | synthetic | as above |
u_strep_none | sore throat | utility, no antibiotic when streptococcal | 0.60 | synthetic:teaching_approximation | synthetic | declared scale; patient-preference range to be added |
u_viral_immediate | sore throat | utility, immediate antibiotic when viral | 0.55 | synthetic:teaching_approximation | synthetic | side effects, resistance, no benefit |
u_backup | sore throat | utility, back-up prescription (both states) | 0.85 | synthetic:teaching_approximation | synthetic | declared scale |